Market report · The Open Book
The UK property market in October 2026: what the numbers say
Modest national growth hides a north–south split, interest rates are on hold with a hawkish edge, and the rules for renting and buying are changing. Here are the official figures, and what they mean if you're moving.
Prices: up a little, but not everywhere
The official UK House Price Index put the average home at £272,611 in July 2026, up +1.4% on a year earlier and +0.7% on the month. England averaged £293,479 (+1.1%), Wales £215,037 (+2.6%) and Scotland £196,349 (+2.3%). Northern Ireland, measured quarterly, reached £202,487 in Q2 (+9.2%).
The regional picture is more interesting than the headline. The North East (+4.9%) and North West (+4.4%) led the growth table, while London fell 3.3% and the South West slipped 0.2%. In other words, the cheapest parts of England are rising fastest. See every region.
What it means: if you're selling in the north, the market is with you, but price on evidence: buyers can see the same data. If you're selling in London or the South West, the price you list at matters more than ever, and so does removing reasons for a buyer to renegotiate.
Rates: on hold, with three votes for a rise
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, its sixth hold of the year. The vote was 6–3, with three members preferring a rise to 4%, after CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, driven largely by energy and motor fuel prices. The next decision is due on 5 November 2026.
For movers, that means mortgage pricing is unlikely to fall much in the near term, and fixed rates can move before the Bank does, because lenders price off market expectations. If you're buying, get a mortgage in principle early and ask how long an offer is valid for.
Renting: Section 21 has gone
The first phase of the Renters' Rights Act took effect in England on 1 May 2026. Section 21 "no-fault" evictions were abolished, and most fixed-term tenancies became rolling periodic tenancies, which tenants can end with two months' notice. Landlords now need a valid Section 8 ground to regain possession.
For landlords selling up, that changes the timetable. Selling with tenants in place, or getting vacant possession, now depends on the new grounds and notice periods, so it's worth taking advice before you list.
Buying and selling: reform is coming, slowly
On 19 June 2026 the government set out plans to reform home buying in England and Wales. The plans include upfront "sales packs" at listing covering condition, leasehold costs and chain status; binding conditional contracts that would commit both sides earlier, with penalties for withdrawing without good reason; digital property logbooks; and a new Code of Practice for property agents later this year. The government says around one in three sales falls through, costing sellers about £400 million a year, and that the reforms could cut buying times by around four weeks. Legislation is expected by the end of this Parliament.
What it means: you don't have to wait for the law. Everything in a sales pack can be gathered today, and buyers already prefer homes that come with answers. That's the idea behind the Open Book.
Tax: what's changed and what's coming
- Stamp Duty (England and NI): since 1 April 2025 the nil-rate band has been £125,000, and first-time buyers pay nothing up to £300,000, with relief ending above £500,000. Calculate yours.
- Property income: from April 2027, income tax on property income rises by two percentage points, to 22%, 42% and 47%, under measures announced in the Autumn Budget 2025.
- High Value Council Tax Surcharge: from April 2028, owners of homes in England valued at £2 million or more will pay an annual surcharge, from £2,500 to £7,500 depending on value.
- First-time buyer savings: the government consulted in June 2026 on replacing the Lifetime ISA with a new First-Time Buyer ISA. The Lifetime ISA, with its £450,000 property limit, remains open for now.
The bottom line
This is a market that rewards preparation. Prices are rising gently overall, finance isn't getting cheaper soon, and around a quarter to a third of agreed sales still collapse. The sellers who complete are the ones whose homes come with answers.
Sources
- HM Land Registry and ONS, UK House Price Index summary: July 2026 (published 16 September 2026).
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, 17 September 2026.
- MHCLG, Homebuying shake-up to slash delays, cut costs and stop sales falling through (June 2026).
- MHCLG, Implementing the Renters' Rights Act 2025: roadmap.
- GOV.UK, Stamp Duty Land Tax: residential property rates.
- HM Treasury, Autumn Budget 2025 (26 November 2025).
- TwentyCi, Property & Homemover Report, Q1 2026 (fall-through rate 23.7%).
This report is general information, not financial, legal or tax advice. Figures are as published on the dates shown and may be revised.